Milestones

I don't know why round numbers are so pleasing, but -- they are.

I just noticed that Get Whatcom Planning passed the 1,000-comment mark.  We're at 1,005.

We passed the 100,000 page view mark some time ago.

All of which goes to show that more people care about this ornery corner of the world than you might suspect. 

Coal Terminal Math Magic: The Jobs Multiplier Rears its Ugly Head Again

On the front page of the Bellingham Herald today, a Gateway Pacific Terminal press release masqueraded as news.

In fact, there was nothing new about the information in the article.  In the face of an overwhelming show of opposition to the coal terminal last weekend, at a “scoping session” for the coal terminal Environmental Impact Statement, a coal terminal spokesman pulled out a poll that the coal terminal backers had commissioned back in May 2012.

The Herald had already reported on this poll back in May 2012, and the coal terminal spokespeople did not allow the newspaper to see the entire poll.  It did allow the paper to reprint one question.  This one question purportedly showed that more people support the terminal than oppose it, based on a polling of Whatcom and Skagit County residents.

The one question was a doozy.

It purported to list the benefits and the burdens of this project.  The list of burdens was far from complete; it never mentions noise or marine vessel traffic, for example. With respect to economic impacts on existing communities, the poll question states that “critics say” that train traffic could discourage redevelopment of “Bellingham’s waterfront.” 

Nowhere did it mention that increased train traffic will split Mt. Vernon in two, delaying emergency response vehicles and cutting off the downtown business core from the eastern residential, high school and hospital area . 

It did not mention impacts on businesses in Burlington – impacts on business, jobs, and revenue which are outlined in this letter from Burlington’s Chamber of Commerce.  

Why would Skagit County respondents worry unduly about redevelopment of Bellingham’s waterfront?  If they knew about impacts on their own home towns, though, the responses might have been very different.

When it came to benefits, however, the pollsters really outdid themselves.

The question posed to respondents states that the project “will create more than four thousand jobs during the construction phase and more than twelve hundred permanent family-wage jobs once the facility is operational.”

Fascinating.

The project application, submitted to Whatcom County last spring, states that the coal terminal will directly employ “up to 213 full time shift workers” at full buildout.  See page 226 of 312.  If you add in administrative staff, that’s 44 more workers, or 257 employees.  Then there will be additional BNSF employees (66), and pilots, tug operators, and other marine service workers, estimated at 107 additional workers.

So when you look at the indirect impacts of the coal terminal – and you’d better believe that the coal terminal proponents will be calling any offsite environmental impacts “indirect,” so let’s call these additional jobs “indirect” also – you get to “approximately 430 jobs.”  Getting the job count that high takes some assumptions and estimates, but OK, if we look at direct and indirect jobs, we can get to 430.

But the poll question said “more than twelve hundred permanent family wage jobs.”  Where did that come from?

If we look at the jobs that will result directly from the terminal (213), the poll question applies a multiplier of almost 6.  In this world, every direct job allegedly will result in 6 additional jobs.

OK, then.  If that’s the math, let’s apply it consistently.

• Every time a teacher or a firefighter is fired, let’s calculate the economic loss for the additional 6 jobs that were eliminated
• When terminal construction is completed, let’s make sure that we have a plan for the elimination of construction jobs times 6.   That will be an enormous job loss – how will we handle the end of construction plus to the loss of 6 times that number of jobs? 
•  For every job lost in Bellingham, Burlington, Mt. Vernon and on down the line, we must be sure to multiply by 6.

Now now, somebody might say.  The coal terminal job analysis really “only” used a 4.05 employment multiplier.  That’s what the application says, on page 227 of 312.  For that ratio to work, however, you have to take into account the workers in supporting industries – not just the workers directly employed on the project site.

So, if we’re going to use a 4.05 multiplier to determine job losses in communities along the train line, we must first add in the employees that work in supporting industries and then multiply by 4.05.

If math magic can be used to overstate project benefits, the same magic must be applied to project burdens.   And all project burdens have to be brought into the calculation.

Otherwise, you get GIGO -- garbage poll question in, garbage poll results out.  And that's what is gracing the front page of the Herald today.

Coal Port Scoping, Bellingham Style

I didn’t have time to linger over the newspaper this morning, what with the prospect of Bellingham’s biggest socio-political event in years taking place over at Squalicum High School.  But a full-page ad in the Herald, shouting “We’re Speaking Out!”, did catch my attention.  Sponsored by the Alliance for Northwest Jobs and Exports (Slogan:  “Build Terminals Here/Build Jobs Here”), the ad featured an attractive young couple and a little girl..

“Now, who’s that couple?” asked an out of town friend who was staying with us.  I don’t know who they are, and if they came to the High School this morning to “speak out,” I didn’t spot them in the sea of red t-shirts and the forest of “No Coal Export” signs. 

From what I’ve heard – and I may have missed it – the young couple did not “speak out.”

I did see one young man who looked a little bit like the fellow in the ad.  He was wearing a “Build Terminals Here/Build Jobs Here” pin, but wasn’t accompanied by a wife or child.  Probably a different guy.   

When somebody asked if he was from Bellingham, he said “No, actually I’m from Bothell.” 

This raised a question in my mind about what the word “Here” might mean to that young man.  Was he at Squalicum High School in order to advocate the construction of a terminal in Bothell?  Or perhaps Whatcom County is akin to a church mission project for Bothellites, who want to give us a hand out of our current employment situation by providing advice on “good jobs.”

Speaking of advice, I do think that SSA’s public process consultants need to learn from Disney.  What was the point of making hundreds of Whatcom County citizens line up in the cold and rain in order to compete for the opportunity to speak out about the coal terminal?  I had suggested to the County, only half in jest, that they could have given out bracelets in advance.  After all, concert impresarios know what they’re doing when it comes to crowd control.

At the very least, we all could have been provided with flu shots while we waited.  But then, I suppose that, as a captive audience, we should be grateful that we were not subjected to ads for the coal terminal.

Fortunately for the organizers, Whatcom County folks are hardy,  good natured, apparently not prone to claustrophobia, and very tractable.  We waited, we stood where we were told, we shuffled where and when we were supposed to shuffle, and eventually we all got inside the high school.  

Two rooms, the gym and the auditorium, accommodated speakers.  I was in the gym, and the first two speakers expressed the Lummi Nation’s opposition to the terminal. I’m sure that Paul Anderson won’t mind if I borrow one of his lovely photos to illustrate the moment when Lummi Chairman Cliff Cultee was addressing government agency representatives:

Photo by Paul Anderson

The speakers were warmly and respectfully received by the crowd.  To a large extent, the crowd wore red for “no coal” and green for “build a terminal here.”  This will make for a most festive holiday family photo, no question.

I didn’t hear a single pro-terminal speaker throughout the time that I listened to testimony, although I have since heard that there was one.  In the auditorium, I hear that things were about the same – one pro-coal speaker, and dozens of passionate, informed, thoughtful citizens who asked the agencies to respect the fact that the future of our community is in their hands.

To me, today’s event showed that this is a community that merits the utmost respect.  I hope that the agencies agree.

_________________________

P.S.  Kudos to County Council member Carl Weimer, who came out to hear the community's concerns.  I hear that City Council member Seth Fleetwood was also at the scoping session, listening to community comments.  Thanks, Carl and Seth!